OCTOBER AND SEPTEMBER 2012

The country’s annual headline inflation rate continued to move at a slower pace as it settled at 3.1 percent in October from 3.6 percent in September. This can be attributed to the deceleration in the annual increases recorded in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index and recreation and culture index. Inflation in October 2011 was 5.2 percent.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation slid to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent in September.

Similarly, annual inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) further improved to 2.9 percent in October from 3.5 percent in September. This was effected by the slowdowns in the annual increments of the indices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services.

In Areas Outside NCR (AONCR), annual inflation also eased to 3.3 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. The following indices posted slower annual hikes: food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcoholic beverages and tobacco; clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels; and recreation and culture.

Year-on-Year Inflation Rates in the Philippines, All Items January 2007 - October 2012 (2006=100)
Month	Year
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
January	3.8	4.6	7.1	3.9	4.0	4.0
February	2.9	5.1	7.2	3.9	4.7	2.7
March	2.6	5.8	6.7	3.9	4.9	2.6
April	2.6	7.3	5.6	4.0	4.7	3.0
May	2.7	8.2	4.3	3.9	4.9	2.9
June	2.6	9.4	3.2	3.6	5.2	2.8
July	2.9	10.2	2.2	3.8	4.9	3.2
August	2.7	10.5	1.7	4.1	4.6	3.8
September	2.9	10.1	2.3	3.8	4.7	3.6
October	2.9	9.7	2.9	3.3	5.2	3.1
November	3.1	9.1	3.5	3.7	4.7
December	3.7	7.8	4.4	3.6	4.2
Average	2.9	8.3	4.1	3.9	4.6

• Prices of consumer items continued to post a negative monthly rate of -0.1 percent in October. In general, price declines were observed in the heavily-weighted food items particularly rice and vegetables. Reductions in the prices of selected food items such as fish, cooking oil and some condiments and seasonings along with lower charges in electricity rates and the price decreases in gasoline and diesel in many regions also contributed to the downtrend.

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  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
  (2006=100)
  OCTOBER 2012

By Region, Year-on-Year

• The annual inflation in NCR further slackened to 2.9 percent in October from 3.5 percent in September.

• Annual inflation in AONCR likewise improved to 3.3 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September as ten regions had slower annual rates. The biggest slowdown of 1.5 percentage points was posted in Cagayan Valley (2.7% from 4.2%). The lowest annual rate was posted in Ilocos at 1.5 percent while the highest at 7.2 percent remained in Central Visayas.

By Commodity Group, Year-on-Year

• On an annual basis, the increase in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index in the Philippines moved slower to 2.5 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September and recreation and culture index, 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent. The rest of the commodity groups retained their last month’s rate except in furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house index whose annual adjustment went up to 4.8 percent from 4.6 percent.

  The annual increment in the food alone index at the national level further decelerated to 2.5 percent in October from 3.6 percent in September.

  An annual decline was observed in oils and fats index at -4.5 percent in October from -4.9 percent in September and in vegetables index, -0.1 percent from 9.9 percent. Lower annual hikes in the following food groups also contributed to the slowdown: rice index, 1.1 percent in October from 1.2 percent in September; fish index, 6.0 percent from 6.9 percent; fruits index, 5.2 percent from 6.2 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 2.2 percent from 2.7 percent. Annual movements in the other food groups were higher or remained at their last month’s rate.

• In NCR, annual add-on in food and non-alcoholic beverages index eased to 1.7 percent in October from 4.3 percent in September and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index, 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent. The rest of the commodity groups either recorded higher annual upticks or retained their respective last month’s rate.

  • The food alone index in NCR had an annual gain of 1.5 percent in October. This was however slower than the 4.3 percent annual growth in September.

  • The vegetables index posted a negative annual rate of -8.5 percent in October from a double-digit annual increase of 18.8 percent last month. An annual decrease was still noticed in oils and fats index at -8.4 percent from -8.9 percent. Moreover, the rest of the food groups had slower annual mark-ups except for the indices of meat and sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery.

• In AONCR, slowdowns in the annual increments were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups: food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcoholic beverages and tobacco; clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels; and recreation and culture. However, annual growths in the rest of the commodity groups were higher or remained at their previous month’s rate.

  • The annual uptick in the food alone index in AONCR improved to 2.7 percent in October from 3.4 percent in September.

  • A negative annual change continued to register in the oils and fats index at -3.4 percent in October from -3.7 percent in September. In addition, the annual gain in fish index slowed to 6.4 percent from 7.2 percent; fruits index, 5.7 percent from 6.5 percent; vegetables index, 1.7 percent from 8.2 percent; and food products not elsewhere classified index, 2.4 percent from 2.9 percent.

  • Nine regions posted higher annual rates in the rice index while the rest of the regions had lower annual increments with others recording annual declines except in ARMM whose annual rate remained at 3.3 percent. These mixed annual adjustments resulted to a 1.1 percent annual growth in the group’s index in AONCR, the same rate in September. The biggest annual mark-up of 1.2 percentage points was noted in Davao (1.8% from 0.6%).

  • The rest of the food groups either had faster annual increases or retained their last month’s rate.

By Region, Month-on-Month

By Commodity Group, Month-on-Month

• Measured from a month ago level, prices of consumer items at the national level continued to register a -0.1 percent decline in October. This was due to the downward adjustment in food and non-alcoholic beverages index at -0.3 percent from 0.4 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels index, -0.1 percent from -1.1 percent; and transport index, -0.1 percent from 0.6 percent. A slowdown in the monthly add-on in clothing and footwear index at 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent was also observed during the month. On the other hand, the index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco went up 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent and health and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services indices, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. The rest of the commodity groups retained their last month’s rate or had zero growth.

  • Vegetables were generally cheaper during the month as its national index decreased by -2.0 percent; NCR, -5.7 percent; and AONCR, -1.2 percent. The vegetable producing provinces already recovered from the effect of weather disturbances that occurred in August resulting to abundant supplies in the markets, thus lower prices of vegetables were observed.

  • The oils and fats index in the Philippines dropped by -0.9 percent from -0.7 percent; NCR, -0.1 percent from -0.4 percent; and in AONCR, -1.1 percent from -0.8 percent as downward price adjustments in cooking oil were observed in many regions.

  • Price reductions in sugar seen in many regions pushed down the index for sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery in the Philippines and AONCR by -0.2 percent. Meanwhile, the group’s index in NCR rose 0.2 percent as sugar products were priced higher in the area.

  • The rice index in AONCR posted a -0.1 percent drop during the month as the harvest season of palay in some provinces brought ample supplies of rice in the markets. Likewise, prices of rice in NCR went down by -1.6 percent. Thus, the national index declined by -0.3 percent.

  • The peak season of harvesting tuna fish pulled down the fish index in selected regions thereby resulting to the -0.1 percent reduction in the fish index in the Philippines and AONCR. However, the fish index in NCR rose 0.2 percent as selected non-seasonal fish species were priced higher during the month.

  • With the price declines in some spices, condiments and seasonings in selected regions, the index for food products not elsewhere classified in the Philippines and AONCR correspondingly decreased by -0.1 percent and -0.3 percent. Prices of these items however were higher in NCR markets. Hence, the group’s index in the area inched up 0.9 percent during the month.

• The index of transport in the Philippines and AONCR went down by -0.1 percent as prices of gasoline and diesel were generally lower in most of the regions. The transport index in NCR similarly had a zero growth from 0.8 percent. Declines in the prices of gasoline and diesel were offsetted by the increments in the prices of engine and lubricating oil.

• The continuous decline in the electricity rates in selected regions pushed down the index for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels in AONCR by -0.2 percent. On the contrary, the group’s index in NCR rose 0.4 percent. This was due to higher charges for electricity rates and the increments in the prices of LPG. These mixed price trends resulted to a drop of -0.1 percent in tne national index.

• With upward price adjustments in meals eaten outside the home and some items for personal care and effects in selected regions, the index for restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services in the Philippines and AONCR grew by 0.2 percent. In NCR, the group’s index posted a zero growth.

NOTE:

1. The second phase survey reports from Lanao del Sur and Tawi-tawi were not received as of November 5, 2012.

2. CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are also available upon request at NSO, Industry and Trade Statistics Department, Economic and Indicators Division (Telephone Numbers: 716-39-35 and 715-33-47).

(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator