Population Projection Statistics

Updated Population Projections Based on the Results of 2015 POPCEN

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) releases the updated 2010 Census-based Population Projections using the results of the 2015 Census of Population (POPCEN 2015). This in response to the demands for the latest population estimates at national and sub-national levels to be used as inputs in development plans, policies and programs, market research and analysis, among others.

Highlights of the 2010 Census-Based Population Projections

The population projections for the 80 provinces and two special areas, Cotabato City (located in Maguindanao but is under SOCKSARGEN) and Isabela City (located in Basilan but is under Zamboanga Peninsula), indicate that by 2045, the metropolis of Cebu which includes the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue, will have the largest number of persons with almost 6.0 million, followed by Cavite with 5.2 million, Bulacan (4.5 million), Rizal (4.4 million), Laguna and Negros Occidental (4.3 million each) and Pangasinan (4.0 million).

Ten Regions Expected to Grow Faster Than the National Average

The Philippine population is projected to reach 142 million by 2045. This signifies about 49 million persons added to the country's population from 2010 to 2045, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 1.21 percent. All regions are expected to increase in population but with varying rates of growth. Ten regions are projected to grow faster than the national average with five of these regions located in Mindanao.

A 142 Million Philippine Population by 2045?

By the year 2045, the Philippine population is projected to increase to 142 million according to the latest 2010 Census-based population projections. Around 50 million people would be added in a span of 35 years. This increase in numbers would take place even if the average annual growth rate is projected to decline significantly, from 1.73 percent during 2010-2015 to 0.65 percent during 2040-2045. The Philippine population grew by 1.9 percent annually during the decade 2000-2010.

Philippine Population Would Reach Over 140 Million by the Year 2040 (Final Results from the 2000 Census-based Population Projections)

The Philippine population would continue to grow, increasing from 76.5 million, as of the latest population census conducted in May 2000, to 141.7 million in 2040, according to the Medium Series of the 2000 Census-based population projections. This means that 65 million people would be added to the nation's population between 2000 and 2040, which is a span of 40 years, even if the average annual growth rate is projected to drastically decline from 2.34 percent during the 1990-2000 period to around 1.0 percent during the 2030-2040 period. The population is projected to grow by 1.95 percent in the 2005-2010 period, from 85.3 million in 2005 to 94.0 million in 2010.


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